Long-Term Fluctuations in Circalunar Beach Aggregations of the Box Jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with Links to Environmental Variability

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998- Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998-2001; 2006-2011) and decrease (2001-2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach.